Study on productivity prediction model of horizontal coalbed methane well and its applicability
Ming Ying
Tang Dazhen
Tao Shu
Chen Shida
Ren Pengfei
Abstract：In order to accurately choose suitable productivity prediction model for different production type coalbed methane well,according to the mathematical statistic theory and case analysis,the paper discussed the efficiency,suitability and difference of the Weng model,month production/accumulated production ratio model and gray system model based on the tine sequence in the fitting and prediction of coalbed methane horizontal wells.The study showed that the above three models could all well fitting on the production history of the coalbed methane wells,could make the accurate predictions and could have differences in each model.The Weng model could make an accurate prediction for the wells with a stable variation production and a small fluctuation and when a high fluctuation occurred,the prediction would have a high error.The month production/accumulated production ratio model could be applied to the middle-long term prediction and would be affected by the decreasing law.The gray system model would have a high fitting and high prediction accuracy to the decreasing stage of the production wells and the error would be increased with the fluctuation of the decreased data.Therefore,the models should be selectively applied according to the production stage,production features and purpose of the coalbed methane well.
Keywords：coalbed methanehorizontal welltime sequenceproductivity prediction
Publication Date：2016-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 113-117 )