Research on carbon peak prediction in the steel industry based on LCA-LEAP model:A case study of Hebei Province
LIANG Dong
YUAN Qiheng
CHEN Xiang
WANG Jun
GAO Di
ZHAO Jialong
SHI Lichi
Abstract：Against the backdrop of global climate change and China's"dual carbon"goals,it is crucial to study the carbon peak path of the steel industry as a high energy consuming and high emission industry.In response to the limitation of the lack of full lifecycle analysis in existing research,this study constructs anLCA-LEAPcoupled model,taking the steel industry in Hebei Province as a case study.Through three scenarios of benchmark,low-carbon,and enhanced low-carbon,combined with policy documents and technical parameters,the carbon emission trend from 2021 to 2035 is predicted.The research results indicate that carbon emissions continue to increase under the baseline scenario;The low-carbon scenario is expected to reach its peak in 2025,with a peak of approximately 293 million tons of CO2;strengthening the low-carbon scenario through technological innovations such as hydrogen metallurgy and green electricity substitution can reach its peak in 2028,two years ahead of the national target.Throughout the entire lifecycle,the production and raw material acquisition stages are crucial for reducing emissions,with a significant increase in the contribution rate of green electricity substitution.The study emphasizes that the collaborative mechanism between policy,technology,and market is the guarantee for achieving carbon peak,providing quantitative reference for the low-carbon transformation of the regional steel industry.
Keywords：steel industrycarbon peak predictionLCA-LEAP modelfull life cyclescenario analysis
Publication Date：2025-11-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-12-18(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 43-51 )