The emissions reduction potential of Canadian LNG exports to China

LIU Yi; WANG Jianliang; WU Songkai; JIANG Wenran

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-9605.2025.10.009

Abstract：Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement allows for the achievement of Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)through Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes(ITMOs),highlighting cooperation between developed and developing countries as a critical approach to addressing climate change.LNG Canada,the largest liquefied natural gas(LNG)project in Canada,is expected to commence operations in early 2025,with plans to export 40％of its annual production to China.Utilizing LNG from this project to reduce coal consumption in China creates potential ITMOs to support emission reduction targets for both Canada and China.This study employs a life cycle assessment model to quantify the GHG reduction potential of Canadian LNG imports to China in the electricity,heating,and steel sectors.Results indicate that,in the electricity sector,gas-fired power generation can reduce emissions by approximately 55％compared to coal-fired power.In the heating sector,rural gas heating retrofits show greater emission reduction potential than urban retrofits,achieving reductions of 63％and 32％,respectively.In the steel industry,two natural gas-based steelmaking methods,hydrogen metallurgy and natural gas direct reduced iron(DRI),are evaluated as alternatives to coal-based steelmaking.The mitigation effect of hydrogen metallurgy depends on the choice of hydrogen production technology,while using DRI technology with electric arc furnace steelmaking can lower emissions by about 20％.The findings confirm the environmental feasibility of ITMOs cooperation between Canada and China based on LNG trade.However,further assessment of the economic viability and social acceptability of specific projects is necessary before implementation.