Analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of energy carbon emissions in Guangxi at the county scale
SHI Linni
ZHOU Huijie
LI Haiyan
ZHOU Yongzhang
Abstract：Based on NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data and energy statistics from 2013 to 2022,this study takes 111 counties in Guangxi as research units and employs spatial autocorrelation,geographic detector,and geographically weighted regression(GWR)models to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions,providing a scientific basis for regional differentiated emission reduction strategies.The results indicate that:① From 2013 to 2022,the total energy-related carbon emissions in Guangxi increased by 27.3％,with the spatial pattern shifting from"scattered point distribution"to"multi-core agglomeration."High-emission zones expanded toward Nanning,Liuzhou,and the coastal industrial belt,while low-emission areas remained stable in the ecological regions of western and northern Guangxi.② The global Moran's I index rose from 0.37 to 0.54,indicating enhanced spatial positive correlation,with HH-type clusters concentrated in the Nanning metropolitan area.③ Economic development level(GDP,q=0.67)and energy intensity(q=0.40)were identified as the core driving factors of carbon emissions,and their interaction effect(q=0.95)highlighted the contradiction between energy-intensive industries and extensive growth patterns.
Keywords：carbon emissionsenergy consumptionnighttime light datageodetectorspatio-temporal evolution characteristics
Publication Date：2025-10-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-12-02(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：10( 50-59 )