Research on quantitative decomposition model of factors influencing carbon emissions in the power industry based on PCA-LMDI
HU Wei
WANG Hanyun
TIAN Zhan
CHEN Jiaqian
XU Changxiang
Abstract：The power industry is the main force to achieve the dual carbon goal in China,and exploring the coupling characteristics of carbon emission factors in the power industry is of great significance to promote the construction of a new power system.Based on the energy consumption and production data of the power industry in each province from 2011 to 2020,this paper analyzes the driving factors of carbon emissions in China's power industry by using principal component analysis(PCA)and Logarithmic Mean Index Method(LMDI),and predicts carbon emissions in 2021-2030 by using grey model(GM).The results show that:① The carbon emissions of China's power industry show an overall upward trend during 2011-2020,among which the major power generating provinces are facing greater pressure of emission reduction,and the power industry in some regions has basically achieved the carbon peak;② Economic level effect and power technology level are the main factors causing the change of carbon emissions in the power industry;③ According to the forecast results,the carbon emissions of China's power industry in general show a continuous upward trend.
Keywords：carbon emissionelectric power industrydriving factorsLMDIgrey model
Publication Date：2025-09-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-11-05(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 75-82 )