Study on the path of low-carbon transformation and upgrading of Guangxi's high-energy-consuming manufacturing industry:based on the perspective of the"dual carbon"target

LIAO Zhigao; LI Xiaoting; JIAN Kerong

Abstract：In the context of China's"dual carbon"strategy,a deep analysis of the challenges faced by Guangxi's high energy consuming manufacturing industry in low-carbon transformation,and exploration of its low-carbon transformation and upgrading path,will provide reference examples for Guangxi and other regions,thereby helping to achieve the"dual carbon"goals and the sustainable development of the regional economy.This study takes Guangxi in the western region as the research object to examine the impact of policy effectiveness and changes in policy intensity on the low-carbon development of high energy consuming manufacturing industry.A system dynamics model of low-carbon transformation and upgrading of high energy consuming manufacturing industry in Guangxi is constructed,involving four systems:economy,energy,environment,and policy.Based on the relationships between subsystems in the dynamic changes of the system,the development and change trends are tracked,and the impact of a single policy and different policy combinations on the low-carbon transformation and upgrading of high energy consuming manufacturing industry in Guangxi is simulated.The results show that single policies such as industry,energy,and low-carbon have significant effects,while the role of technology and environmental policies is relatively weak;The combination of policies has outstanding advantages,which can promote the early peak of energy consumption intensity,balance carbon emissions and economic development.Based on the simulation results of system dynamics,a transformation path is proposed:① In terms of industrial policies,optimize investment structure and tilt towards low-carbon industries;② In terms of energy policies,increasing energy tax rates to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in enterprises;③ At the level of low-carbon policies,regulate carbon tax rates and leverage the economy;④ Technology policies focus on balancing benefits to promote innovation;⑤ Environmental policies increase investment in environmental protection to support low-carbon transformation,providing an example for Guangxi and other regions to achieve"dual carbon"and regional sustainable development.