Study on the influence of"dual carbon"target on coal production based on covariance

REN Zhicheng

Abstract：To investigate the influence of the"dual carbon"targets on coal production,the logical relationship between carbon emissions and coal production was analyzed based on the CORREL function and the covariance method.The characteristics of China's energy consumption were expounded,the characteristics of energy consumption and structural adjustment methods in the United States were explored,the challenges and main paths of China's energy consumption structure adjustment under the"dual carbon"targets were examined,and the related factors and correlation degree of China's coal production adjustment were analyzed using the grey correlation degree method.The research indicates that:① There exists a positive logical correlation between carbon emissions and coal production,that is,carbon emissions change along with the variation of coal production.Reducing carbon emissions to achieve carbon neutrality inevitably leads to a decrease in coal production;② Currently,China's energy consumption per unit of GDP is relatively high,leaving much room for reduction.The main approaches include enhancing energy utilization efficiency,lowering energy consumption per unit of GDP,reducing coal production and the proportion of energy;③ Under the"dual carbon"targets,coal production is predicted to peak around 2030 and then gradually decline.New energy supply capacity will surpass coal and become the main energy source in China around 2040,and its proportion will be less than 15％in 2060 supported by CCUS;④ Initial progress has been made in the transformation and upgrading of China's energy consumption.The coal production,total energy consumption in China,economic growth rate,and the dependence on coal for power generation show a downward trend.