Study on the evolution mechanism of power supply and demand risk under the background of energy transformation
GONG Qiansheng
FU Jiajing
Abstract：In the process of realizing the goal of"double carbon",building a new power system is an important guarantee for China's smooth transition to low carbon.The active integration between coal-fired power and renewable energy is an effective means to effectively promote energy transformation.However,under the interference of various risk factors,the problem of unstable power generation is becoming more and more obvious.Therefore,based on the theory of system dynamics,taking the operation state of Northeast Power System from September to November in 2021 as an example,an"energy-electricity"system model is established,and the power supply,power demand and power supply failure rate are simulated and analyzed.According to three different risk factors:extremely cold weather,design defects and human interference,three different scenarios are formulated.The analysis of different scenarios shows that extreme cold weather is the biggest risk factor leading to the failure rate of power supply,and the main reason lies in the rapid growth of demand side;The influence of design defects on power generation system is cumulative and persistent;The influence of illegal operation on"energy-electricity"system is fault-induced.Based on this,some suggestions are put forward.
Keywords：evolution mechanismnew energycoal and electricityelectric power systemsystem dynamicsrisk evolution
Publication Date：2025-07-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-26(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 38-46 )