Coal price trend and policy recommendations under a loose demand-supply relationship

FANG Yaqian

Abstract：As the dominant energy source in China,fluctuations in coal prices are crucial to economic.Since the implementation of policies such as production increase and supply guarantee in 2021,the domestic coal supply shortage has gradually eased.Coupled with the accelerated global energy transition and domestic constraints from the"dual-carbon"goals,the coal market has shifted from a"tight balance"to a new pattern of"loose supply and demand".This paper aims to systematically analyze the causes,evolution trajectory,and core characteristics of the current loose coal supply-demand situation.Based on this analysis,it provides a forward-looking assessment of future coal price trends,offering theoretical support and decision-making references for formulating industry policies and adjusting corporate strategies.Through a dynamic analysis of both the supply and demand sides of coal,it is projected that the oversupply pattern in the coal market will persist over the next five years.Under these conditions,coal prices are expected to exhibit a weak and volatile trend,with the spot ex-ship price for 5500 kcal/kg thermal coal at North China Port fluctuating within the range of 550～700 RMB per ton.In response,it is recommended to promote the industry's transition toward"quality and efficiency"and build a safe and low-carbon modern coal industrial system by accelerating the phase-out of outdated capacity,establishing flexible working mechanisms for large mines,promoting corporate mergers and reorganizations,and optimizing production structures.