An analysis of energy systems in countries along the Belt and Road based on CMEI index
FANG Guochang
CHEN Xiaoxiao
Abstract：This paper explores the energy systems of the countries along the Belt and Road.A comprehensive multidimensional energy index(CMEI)is constructed,covering five core indicators:energy dependence,renewable energy share,end-use energy consumption share,energy intensity and carbon intensity,to quantitatively assess the energy performance of 17 countries along the Belt and Road,including China,for the period 2000-2022.The results show that most of the countries,except India,have improved their energy systems as a whole,but Iran(2008),Vietnam(2015),and Iraq(2016)have experienced phased declines in specific years,followed by a gradual rebound through structural adjustments.The study further employs a series of models to predict the trend from 2023-2030,and validation by mean square error(MSE)and correlation coefficient(R)reveals that the residual correction GM(1,1)model has higher prediction accuracy in most countries,while Pakistan and Thailand are more suitable for NAR neural network model due to the nonlinear characteristics of the data.The prediction shows that China and India's CMEI index will continue the downward trend and need to focus on energy system optimization,while the rest of the countries' energy system operation trend is positive.The study provides a quantitative assessment framework and prediction basis for energy governance in the Belt and Road Initiative.
Keywords："Belt and Road Initiative"Comprehensive Multidimensional Energy Index(CMEI)energy systemsNAR neural network
Publication Date：2025-06-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：11( 6-16 )