Study on carbon emission drivers and optimal peak achievement path in Jiangsu province
LI Chunhui
ZOU Xiaoying
CHEN Wangyu
YANG Ruoshi
ZHAO Xujie
ZHAO Xiyu
Abstract：Using the extended STIRPAT model and combined with ridge regression method to fit China's carbon emissions from 2006-2021,set the parameters of carbon emission scenarios,screen the four optimal combinations of low-carbon scenarios,use Monte Carlo method to dynamically predict the carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province from 2022-2060,analyse the level of carbon peak during the period,and screen the optimal peak path.The results show that:① Except for the proportion of industrial output value,all other factors contribute to carbon emissions,and the degree of influence is population size＞energy intensity＞GDP per capita＞urbanisation rate＞energy structure,in descending order.② When the energy intensity and energy structure are high,and the industrial output ratio,urbanisation rate,GDP per capita and population size are medium-high,it is the optimal low-carbon development path.③ The most likely time for Jiangsu Province to achieve significant carbon peaking is 2030,with carbon emissions of about 900 million tonnes.
Keywords：STIRPAT modelcarbon emissionsituational analysisMonte Carlo modellingpeak carbon pathway
Publication Date：2025-05-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 84-90 )