Economic and welfare impacts of trade barriers on China's photovoltaic industry and strategic responses
GAO Yiying
ZHENG Xinzhu
Abstract：As the energy transition reshapes global trade patterns and intensifies international market competition,China faces increasingly severe trade barriers,including efforts to"decouple and break the chain"and"de-risk".The photovoltaic(PV)industry,as one of the"three new frontiers"in foreign trade,is especially impacted.Understanding the effects of these trade barriers on import and export scale and welfare level and their occurrence law is essential for China to formulate a reasoned response to evolving trade dynamics.Research based on counterfactual analysis of the GSIM model reveals that from 2012 to 2021,trade barriers erected by the EU,the US,India,and Turkey cause China's PV exports to lose 5％ (totaling about ($) 10.3 billion).And the damage of trade barriers jointly imposed by multiple countries/economies exceeds the sum of the damage of barriers imposed on China by a single country/economy,and there is an amplification effect of"1+1＞2",with losses increasing by about 1.5％ .If the EU tariff barriers come back in 2025,China's PV exports will lose an additional 6％ (about($)2 billion)and global welfare will be reduced by($)4 billion.To mitigate these losses,China could enhance its export volume by expanding the potential of domestic markets or those of trade-friendly nations and boosting product competitiveness.
Keywords：decoupling and chain disruptionphotovoltaics industryGSIM modeleconomic impactsocial welfare
Publication Date：2025-04-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：12( 17-28 )