Analysis and forecasting of China's industrial electricity consumption based on the structural decomposition method
PEI Liwei
ZHANG Haijing
PAN Guangxu
ZHENG Yu
JIANG Yuan
DU Shenghui
ZHANG Zufu
Abstract：China's rapid economic growth and increased levels of industrialization and urbanization have led to a surge in electricity demand,and accurate forecasts of electricity consumption are needed in order to rationally deploy power resources and avoid supply-demand imbalances and power shortages.This paper analyzes the changes in China's industrial electricity consumption using a structural decomposition model based on input-output analysis.The changes in China's industrial electricity consumption from 2017 to 2022 are decomposed into four factors:electricity intensity,technology input structure,final demand structure and total final demand.The results show that the change in total final demand contributes the most to the growth of China's industrial electricity consumption,increasing electricity consumption by 20 913.4 billion kW·h.Accurate power forecasting plays an important role in power production,supply and power dispatching,for this reason,this paper constructs a forecasting model for China's industrial power consumption based on system dynamics,which will play a positive role in energy saving and consumption reduction aspects of energy-consuming industries.
Keywords：input-outputstructural decomposition methodindustrial electricity consumptionelectricity consumption forecasting model
Publication Date：2025-03-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 181-188 )