Research on reasonable range calculation of regional power coal transaction price under capacity price mechanism
YUAN Shuguang
ZHANG Junjie
YANG Cheng
WANG Yuqi
LIU Haiying
Abstract：The establishment of a reasonable price range for regional thermal coal trading is crucial for the coordinated and high-quality development of the coal and electricity sectors.To scientifically measure this price range,we have developed a regional thermal coal benchmark price model that incorporates key factors such as coal-fired power plant utilization levels,two-part electricity pricing mechanisms,and industry reasonable return rates.Based on this model,we have calculated the reasonable price ranges for thermal coal in various regions.Our research indicates a positive correlation between the reasonable price ranges in each region and the local coal-fired power trading benchmark prices.In most provinces,the reasonable price ranges are similar to those of Qinhuangdao Port's delivered coal prices.However,in the Shanxi,Shaanxi,and Inner Mongolia regions,the upper limits of the price ranges are lower,suggesting that coal-fired power enterprises in these areas face certain risks of loss.Specifically,the reasonable price ranges in these regions are below the mid-to-long-term trading price ranges for Qinhuangdao Port's delivered coal(5 500 kcal),indicating that coal-fired power enterprises in these key regions have a stronger advantage in electricity price elasticity.
Keywords：power coaltransaction pricecapacity price mechanismreasonable intervalbenchmark pricemeasure
Publication Date：2025-03-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 17-24 )