The comparative cost analysis of various net-zero hydrogen production pathways under a unified framework

WANG Jianliang; FAN Jingjing

Abstract：The construction of a modern,clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient energy system centered on renewable energy is an important support for realizing China's goal of carbon neutrality.This study establishes a unified cost comparison framework for hydrogen production pathways and analyzes the net-zero costs of various hydrogen production methods when carbon costs are included.The results indicate that:① At the current technological level,without considering carbon emission costs,the production costs of gray hydrogen,blue hydrogen,and green hydrogen are 1.4～4.4 USD/kg H2,2.0～4.9 USD/kg H2,and 7.5～8.3 USD/kg H2,respectively.② The carbon emissions per kilogram of hydrogen production are 5～20 kg CO2 eq for gray hydrogen,4～6 kg CO2 eq for blue hydrogen,and 1～3 kg CO2 eq for green hydrogen.Green hydrogen exhibits the lowest carbon emissions,highlighting its significant low-carbon advantage.③ When carbon costs are included,at a carbon price of 12.57 USD/t CO2e,coal-based hydrogen and coal-based hydrogen with CCS in gray and blue hydrogen production demonstrate the lowest net-zero costs,while green hydrogen remains the most expensive,only achieving cost competitiveness at very low electricity prices(e.g.,curtailed electricity prices).When the carbon price increases to 37 USD/t CO2e,the net-zero cost of green hydrogen at the lowest electricity price becomes comparable to the highest-cost blue hydrogen.As carbon prices continue to rise,electrolysis-based green hydrogen powered by wind energy demonstrates an absolute net-zero cost advantage.At a carbon price of 200 USD/t CO2e,coal-based gray hydrogen loses its cost advantage,and methane autothermal reforming(ATR)achieves the lowest cost.At this point,green hydrogen costs become lower than the highest-cost blue hydrogen,exhibiting significant cost competitiveness.