Economic and carbon emission impacts of new energy vehicle promotion:Based on a dynamic CGE model
ZHUO MingJie
LIU Yu
ZHANG Shuo
LIANG Dong
Abstract：In the context of the rapid promotion of new energy vehicles,it is of great practical significance to explore its economic and carbon emission impacts.This paper constructs a dynamic CGE model that includes energy input nesting and residential vehicle consumption nesting,introducing a vehicle ownership accounting module and an S-shaped market penetration curve to simulate the economic and carbon emission impacts of new energy vehicle promotion.The research findings show that although the promotion of new energy vehicles has a slightly negative impact on China's economic growth,it will significantly promote the transformation of the industrial structure,especially driving the output growth of the battery,motor,and electronic control industries.Due to the lag of vehicle ownership changes behind sales changes,under the current power generation structure dominated by coal-fired power,the emission reduction effect can only be manifested after 2030.When the proportion of clean electricity supply increases,the emission reduction effect can appear earlier,and the economic loss will also be reduced.This paper is of great practical significance for optimizing the implementation effect of new energy vehicle promotion policies.
Keywords：computable general equilibriumnew energy vehicleseconomic growthenergy transformationcarbon emissions
Publication Date：2025-02-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：12( 47-58 )