The comprehensive impact of the EU CBAM on China:A provincial social accounting matrix analysis via high-carbon industry exports
SUN Yuanchen
HE Jinhong
WU Sanmang
SUN Xiaohan
LEI Yalin
ZHOU Lingling
HE Jianwu
LI Shantong
Abstract：With the formal implementation of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM),it is crucial to thoroughly assess its impact on China's high-carbon industry exports,as well as on domestic industrial production,labor,and income distribution.This study,which is based on China's provincial social accounting matrix and incorporates the Global Trade Analysis Project model,reveals the following:① Under the full implementation of the EU's CBAM,exports from several high-carbon industries of China to the EU are projected to decrease by 20％～35％.② The response of Chinese provinces to the decrease in high-carbon industry exports exhibit significant heterogeneity.Most provinces,constrained by geographical location and industrial linkages,are likely to experience rapid transmission within various industries at the provincial level.However,the manufacture of chemical products in provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong tends to be transmitted preferentially to other provinces.③ The decrease in high-carbon industry exports is expected to have a substantial impact on the income of urban households and unskilled labor in coastal provinces.Notably,the transmission pathway through the impact on unskilled labor,leading to reduced income for households,occupies a significant proportion.This study provides policy insights into the formulation of targeted regional and industrial strategies,aiming to effectively mitigate the economic and social impacts resulting from the CBAM.
Keywords：EUcarbon border adjustment mechanismhigh-carbon industryGTAP modelsocial accounting matrix
Publication Date：2025-02-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：11( 18-28 )