Research on the deployment path of coal-fired power CCUS in China from a regional perspective

ZHANG Jian; ZHAO Yunpeng; WANG Yao; YUAN Jiahai

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-9605.2025.1.mtjjyj202501010

Abstract：Addressing climate change and promoting green and low-carbon development have become global concerns,with a key focus on controlling and reducing carbon dioxide emissions.As one of the major sources of carbon dioxideemissions,coal-fired power generation has garnered significant attention due to its low-carbon transition potential.Carbon Capture,Utilization,and Storage(CCUS)is a crucial technology for mitigating carbon emissions from coal-fired power and has been researched and promoted globally.However,the large-scale deployment of CCUS still faces challenges related to technological maturity,cost,and benefits.Given the variations in power structures and resource endowments,there are substantial differences in the deployment pathways of CCUS across different regions in China.To facilitate the coordinated deployment of CCUS across regions,this paper focuses on the coal-fired power industry and constructs a regional coal-fired power CCUS deployment model based on system dynamics.The study analyzes the deployment pathways and revenue models at both the national and regional levels,and offers targeted suggestions for the rational development of CCUS in the coal-fired power sector.The research findings indicate that:① The deployment pathway of CCUS in China can be divided into three distinct stages:the experimental and demonstration project stage,the booming development stage,and the technology maturity stage,based on the proportion of coal-fired power CCUS retrofitting.② With the widespread adoption of CCUS technologies,carbon emissions from the coal-fired power industry can be reduced by 95.77％of the original levels.③ Due to the varying resource endowments across regions,the deployment of CCUS will alter the national carbon flow layout,with the East and South becoming net carbon outflow regions,the Northwest and Northeast becoming net carbon inflow regions,and the North and Central regions achieving carbon balance,where carbon inflow and outflow are in a relatively equilibrium state.