Study on the optimization of energy consumption structure and carbon decoupling effect in Jiangsu Province

XING Hong

Abstract：The optimization of energy consumption structure is of far-reaching significance for achieving the goal of"double carbon"and promoting the construction of ecological civilization.Firstly,based on the energy consumption and socio-economic data of Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2022,this study calculates the total carbon emissions,and uses the two-dimensional decoupling model to analyze the decoupling relationship between energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth in Jiangsu Province.Secondly,the Markov model is used to predict the energy consumption structure of Jiangsu Province from 2023 to 2035.By combining the control of different total energy consumption,the optimization strategy of energy consumption structure and the economic growth rate into 36 possible scenarios,the decoupling elasticity coefficient between carbon emissions of energy consumption and economic growth in Jiangsu Province under various scenarios is calculated,and the evolution of its decoupling state is analyzed in depth.The results show that from 1995 to 2022,the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province increased at an average annual rate of 4.51％and 3.79％,respectively.The relationship between carbon emissions from energy consumption and economic growth presents a diversified decoupling state,in which the weak decoupling state under low economic level is the main one.In the forecast period(2023～2035),the reduction of decoupling elasticity coefficient can be expected by effectively controlling the total energy consumption,optimizing and adjusting the energy consumption structure and promoting economic growth.On the other hand,only when the total energy consumption is controlled and the energy consumption structure is adjusted in a moderate range,it is possible for Jiangsu Province to achieve a strong decoupling between carbon emissions and economic growth.