Research on the relationship between the coal industry,the real estate industry and the China's economic cycle

WANG Rui

Abstract：By comparing the two economic cycle peaks in 2011 and 2021,this paper selects the 10-year data from May 2013 to April 2023 as the research object,and establishes a VAR model for Wenhua Commodity Index,Steel Sector Index,and Coal Sector Index.The conclusions are as follows:① There is a long-term equilibrium relationship among Wenhua Commodity Index,Steel Sector Index,and Coal Sector Index.② Wenhua Commodity Index and Steel Sector Index,Coal Sector Index are mutually Granger causality,but Steel Sector Index and Coal Sector Index are not mutually Granger causality.This paper analyzes the following points:the real estate industry with strong financial attributes has a deep impact on the Chinese economy,while the coal industry with weak financial attributes has a wide impact on the Chinese economy,both of which will fluctuate with the Chinese economy;When the Chinese economy peaks,the real estate industry and the coal industry also peak in a sequential manner,presenting a double peaked pattern before and after;When the Chinese economy bottoms out,the real estate industry and the coal industry simultaneously bottom out,regardless of differences in industry attributes.At the same time,this paper makes two predictions:the systemic recession starting from 2021 will continue until at least the second to third quarters of 2026;The Kuznets cycle of China's real estate industry peaked and ended in 2021.Finally,this paper proposes to take the path of technological innovation in order to avoid a long L-shaped recovery after the Chinese economy bottoms out in the second to third quarters of 2026.