Research on the influencing factors of China's carbon quota transaction price based on AHP-GRA modeling

DONG Qinglai; SUN Yijia

Abstract：With the increasing global focus on climate change,carbon trading markets have gradually gained recognition as an effective tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Since the launch of China's national carbon emissions trading market,carbon quota prices have fluctuated significantly,and the market mechanisms have yet to fully mature.Therefore,studying the factors influencing China's carbon quota transaction prices is of great significance for improving market mechanisms and stabilizing carbon prices.By constructing a grey relational weighted evaluation model,five primary indicators and ten secondary indicators were selected to quantitatively analyze the correlation between these factors and carbon quota transaction prices.The research results indicate that the top five factors influencing carbon quota prices are:the EUR/CNY spot exchange rate,the closing price of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme(EU-ETS)futures,the daily settlement price of thermal coal futures,the daily settlement price of Brent crude oil futures,and the CSI 300 index.This demonstrates that international factors and energy prices are the main determinants of China's carbon quota prices at present.Based on these findings,this paper proposes recommendations to strengthen the monitoring and response mechanisms for international carbon markets,optimize the energy structure,enhance the linkage between macroeconomic factors and the carbon market,improve the enforcement of policies and regulations,and increase market information transparency.These recommendations aim to promote the stable development of the national carbon market and accelerate the achievement of China's"dual carbon"goals.