The impact of commercial vehicle electrification on critical material dynamics in China

KANG Tingyuan; HAO Han

Abstract：Electrification is an important future development direction for the automotive industry,and the growth of the electric vehicle market will expand the demand for key mineral resources.As the largest producer of EVs,China needs to pay attention to the security and sustainability of key resource supply.Factors such as EV penetration rate,battery chemistry,and battery capacity significantly impact the demand for and recycling potential of key resources.However,existing research often fails to address the impact of large-scale electrification in the commercial vehicle sector.This study establishes a bottom-up model for forecasting the demand for key resources in commercial vehicles,based on vehicle types,across various scenarios.The results indicate that light trucks and heavy-duty trucks have higher demands for key resources compared to medium-sized trucks and buses.In the baseline scenario,the cumulative demand for lithium resources by 2060 is about 30-40 mt,and through decommissioning power battery recycling,the demand for primary lithium resources can be reduced to 10-25 mt.The study further discusses the impact of large-scale adoption of fuel cell vehicles(FCVs)in heavy-duty commercial vehicles on the demand for critical metal resources.Amidst rising risks in key resource supply,encouraging closed-loop recycling of power batteries and developing alternative technologies such as FCVs to mitigate EVs'reliance on key resources is crucial for ensuring resource security.