The research of impact and mechanism of import supply chain uncertainty on pollutant emissions

PENG Dongdong

Abstract：The uncertainty of import supply chain have a significant impact on enterprise production decisions and further affect the emission of air pollutants.This article examines the impact of import supply chain uncertainty on corporate pollution emissions based on matching data from the China Industrial Enterprise Pollution Database,China Industrial Enterprise Database,China Customs Trade Database,and the WUI Database from 2000 to 2012.The research results show that the uncertainty of the import supply chain significantly increases the intensity of pollutant emissions by enterprises,and this conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests.Mechanism testing shows that the uncertainty of import supply chain increases the intensity of pollutant emissions by encouraging enterprises to use dirty energy.That is to say,the increase in uncertainty of import supply chain will increase the cost of using intermediate goods and encourage enterprises to use cheaper but more polluting dirty energy,thereby increasing the intensity of pollutant emissions for enterprises.Heterogeneity analysis found that the uncertainty of import supply chain significantly increases the intensity of pollutant emissions by private enterprises,enterprises in high energy dependent industries,and enterprises in weak environmental regulation areas.At the same time,as the income level of import source countries increases,the exacerbation effect of import supply chain uncertainty on the intensity of pollutant emissions by enterprises increases.