Exploration on balance carbon emission reduction and economic agglomeration under low carbon constraints

XIAO Xuemei

Abstract：To achieve the coordinated development of carbon reduction and economy is an inherent requirement for promoting high-quality development in China.Among them,it is particularly important to clarify the economic impact of low-carbon constraints.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020,this paper empirically analyzes the impact and mechanism of low-carbon constraints on economic agglomeration using limited information maximum likelihood method and mediation effect model.The research finds that:① The impact of low-carbon constraints on economic agglomeration is an inverted"U"type characteristic that first promotes and then inhibits,and this conclusion remains valid after robustness test.② Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the influence of low-carbon constraints on economic agglomeration varies across different regions and in relation to the intensity of low-carbon constraints.③Mechanism test finds that low-carbon constraints have a nonlinear relationship with economic agglomeration that first promotes and then inhibits by affecting the upgrading of industrial structure.Based on this,it is proposed that the central government should formulate scientific and reasonable low-carbon emission reduction targets,and when the low-carbon constraints target is strengthened,corresponding economic support policies should be introduced.Local governments should also play a"self-reliant"role and make joint efforts to achieve the coordinated development of"carbon reduction,pollution reduction,green expansion and growth".