Research on the decoupling trend of thermal power capacity and electricityunder the background of building a new power system

ZHANG Yan; YANG Kai; YUE Hao; YUAN Jiahai; ZHANG Jian

Abstract：In the process of achieving the major climate strategy of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,the high-quality coordinated development of thermal power and new energy is the key to addressing a series of transition challenges.The green and low-carbon transition of energy promotes the change in the functional positioning of thermal power.Under carbon emission constraints,the development space of the thermal power will further shrink,and a high-quality transition of thermal power is imminent.Due to the significant differences in resource endowments and electricity supply and demand foundations among different provinces in China,there is heterogeneity in the development of new energy and the transition process of thermal power.Under this background,analyzing the development trends of thermal power in various provinces,identifying the positioning of thermal power in different provinces,accurately grasping the process and trend of thermal power transition,and providing decision-making support for high-quality thermal power transition are of great and urgent practical significance.Based on the thermal power-related data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2022,this article uses the Tapio decoupling elasticity model to analyze the decoupling situation and spatial-temporal evolution trend of thermal power installed capacity and power generation in various provinces.The results show that China's thermal power capacity and power generation have been in a state of volumetric weak decoupling for a long time.The positioning of thermal power in various provinces has begun to change to varying degrees.The decoupling status of capacity proportion and power generation proportion in most provinces is currently stable in the stage of new energy-driven decoupling.China's power structure continues to be optimized,with the proportion of thermal power installed capacity and power generation decreasing year by year,continuously highlighting its supporting role in accelerating the rapid development of new energy and the construction of a new power system.