Research on investment decision and incentive policies for CCUS in the refining and chemical enterprises:A case study of synthetic urea
GAN Xianxiang
FANG Ruirui
FENG Lianyong
BAI Yubing
Abstract：The mainstream utilization method of current Carbon Capture,Utilization,and Storage(CCUS)projects involves using coal-fired power plants as carbon sources,primarily for Enhanced Oil Recovery(EOR).As CCUS technology applications increase,the industrial applications of CO2 will continue to expand.This study investigates CCUS investment decisions using refinery flue gas as a carbon source and a"Synthetic urea+EOR"CO2 utilization model.It calculates the optimal investment timing and maximum investment value under given parameter conditions using real options theory and Monte Carlo simulation with least squares.Sensitivity analysis on some parameters was also conducted.The study results indicate that an initial carbon price level of 130 yuan per ton triggers immediate investment conditions,highlighting high carbon prices as a critical incentive for CCUS investment.Carbon price volatility similarly impacts refinery CCUS investment decisions significantly,with a stable carbon price environment encouraging investment.EOR subsidies of 150 yuan per barrel or higher effectively stimulate refinery investments,advancing the optimal investment timing to as early as 2026,underscoring the importance of government policies in driving CCUS projects.Initial equipment investment subsidies also incentivize investment but to a lesser extent,suggesting more policy support may be needed to encourage corporate investment.Based on these findings,the study proposes policy recommendations aimed at promoting the development and application of CCUS.
Keywords：petrochemical enterprisesincentive policyreal optionsinvestment decisionsCCUScarbon price volatility
Publication Date：2024-07-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：10( 125-134 )