Study on driving factors of carbon emissions and decoupling effect in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region

QI Xuanxuan; HUANG Qing; HUANG Rui

Abstract：High-quality construction of national important energy bases is of great strategic significance to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,to promote high-quality economic development,and to realize Chinese-style modernization.In this study,based on the long time series of energy consumption and socio-economic data from 1995 to 2020,CO2 emissions in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region are calculated.The driving factors of CO2 emissions in different periods are investigated with the LMDI model.Two-dimensional decoupling model is used to analyze the decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region,and the decoupling index is predicted for the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The results show that during the period of 1995-2020,the total CO2 emission in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region increased at an average annual rate of 6.6％.Economic development and population size contribute to the growth of CO2 emissions in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region,while energy intensity plays an inhibiting role on CO2 emissions.Energy structure has a relatively small effect on CO2 emissions of Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region.CO2 emissions and economic development in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region show different decoupling states in different periods,with weak decoupling and low-level economic growth as the dominant state.The findings can provide scientific support for the formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction measures and high-quality development policies in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region.