Study on industrial energy saving and emission reduction effect of carbon trading pilot policy

DONG Ying; CAI Linmei

Abstract：Industrial energy conservation and emission reduction are crucial for China to achieve the'double carbon'goals of energy sector.The policy effectiveness of carbon trading pilot policies is an important means of determining the magnitude of industrial energy conservation and emission reduction effects.However,existing research lacks the use of both industrial agglomeration(IA)and industrial energy efficiency(IEE)as mediating variables to study the intrinsic mechanism of carbon trading pilot policies on industrial energy conservation and emission reduction.Therefore,this study takes the carbon trading pilot policy implemented in 2013 as a quasi natural experiment,based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020,and uses a multi-period difference in difference model to empirically test whether the carbon trading pilot policy has energy-saving and emission reduction effects on the industrial sector,as well as the transmission mechanism and strength of the effects between the two.The main research found that carbon trading pilot policies can directly promote industrial energy conservation and emission reduction,indirectly through industrial agglomeration and industrial energy efficiency,and the policy effect has a time lag.The energy-saving effect is significant in the second year after policy implementation,and the emission reduction effect is significant in the second and fourth years.The industrial energy conservation and emission reduction effects of the carbon trading pilot policy show a trend of eastern＞western＞central.The above results still hold true after conducting parallel trend tests and placebo tests.On this basis,suggestions are proposed to accelerate the promotion and application of carbon trading pilot policies,effectively improve industrial agglomeration and industrial energy efficiency levels,and optimize the design of carbon trading pilot policies.