Study on dynamic cooperative risk prevention pattern of social ecosystem in coalbed methane development based on CAS echo model

Xue Ye; Zhao Danning; Xue Chongyi; Wang Qi

Abstract：Combined with the Complex Adaptive System(CAS)theory,the risk prevention of social ecosystem in Coalbed Methane(CBM)development is regarded as a complex adaptation process,and the risk prevention subjects(pressure subject,response subject and state subject)and complex adaptability characteristics(self-adaptability,network and diversity)are analyzed.Based on CAS echo model,the dynamic cooperative prevention pattern of social ecosystem main body in CBM development is constructed.Further,the method of complex system modeling and simulation is used to establish the prevention system with different degree of cooperation and test its risk prevention ability.The results showed that:1)In CBM development,the three main bodies of pressure,response and state can achieve coordinated prevention through identification,selective interaction,sign optimization and effect feedback,and constantly learn from themselves in the process of prevention to improve basic prevention capability,emergency management ability,risk transfer ability and disaster relief ability.Finally,this system emergence and evolve into an advanced stability prevention system to achieve adaptation to the social and ecological environment.2)The phase difference function can be used to represent the degree of coordination between pairwise signs.With the improvement of the degree of coordination between the three main bodies of pressure,response and state,the anti-risk ability of the system is also enhanced,and the greater the impact,the more significant the effect.This study can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention of social ecosystem risk in Coalbed Methane(CBM)development.