Driving forces behind employment shifts in the fossil energy sector:inevitable trend or transition outcome?

Zhang Ling; Zheng Xinzhu

Abstract：From 2013 to 2018,the fossil energy industry in China,encompassing coal mining and washing,oil and natural gas extraction,and the processing of oil,coal,and other fuels,along with gas production and supply,saw a one-third reduction in employment absorption.Supply-side reforms and the transition to clean energy are widely considered the leading causes of this employment shrinkage in the fossil energy sector,though their exact contributory roles have not been quantitatively assessed.This study examines the factors influencing employment changes in China's fossil energy sector from 2004 to 2018.It finds that prior to 2013,employment growth in the sector was primarily driven by economic development.The subsequent slowdown in economic growth led to a decrease in employment growth,insufficient to offset the job losses driven by technological advancements,marking one of the primary causes of the reversal in employment trends in the sector from 2013 to 2018.This process accounted for 52%of the employment decline,surpassing the 48%contribution from industrial structural transformation.Moreover,regarding the number of practitioners,labor force outflow from the fossil energy industry due to industrial transformation could be reabsorbed by other sectors through inter-industry transfer.However,the current overall trend in China's job market—declining employment growth due to economic growth slowdown and techno-logical advancements—may pose greater challenges in alleviating employment pressures caused by this factor.This study suggests comprehensive preparedness for the dual impacts faced by the labor market in the fossil energy industry.Policy makers are recommended to not only focus on employment placement and security during the transition,but also to engage in proactive and prompt responses to the employment impacts of economic growth slowdown and technological advancements.