Research on the structure and path of industrial emission reduction under the background of"double control"of carbon emissions

Li Jiarong; Zhuang Fang; Liu Na; Yao Xilong

Abstract：To delve deeper into the industrial emission reduction structure and key pathways under the background of"double control"of carbon emissions,a non-competitive input-output table was utilized.Through the construction of an SPA(Structural Path Analysis)model,an analysis was conducted from four perspectives:end demand,industry structure,production hierarchy,and transmission pathways.This analysis aimed to identify trends in carbon emissions and pinpoint the most significant pathways contributing to emission reduction.The findings reveal that total fixed capital formation,household consumption expenditure,and exports are the primary drivers for achieving carbon reduction.Among these,pathways triggered by household consumption expenditure exhibit greater potential for emission reduction.The efficacy of carbon reduction policies under the double control framework predominantly relies on indirect carbon reduction,with the reduction effect gradually diminishing as the production hierarchy increases.Industries contributing significantly to carbon emission reduction are concentrated in traditional high-energy-consuming sectors such as power generation,metal smelting and rolling processing,and mineral product industries.Therefore,to enhance the effectiveness and feasibility of carbon reduction measures under the background of"double control"of carbon emissions,it is crucial to fully comprehend and leverage the differences in emission reduction effects distributed across production hierarchy and industrial chains.This approach would harness the role of end-demand-driven collaborative emission reduction among industries,aiming to explore tailored pathways for diversified carbon reduction strategies.