Emission reduction and economic cost of carbon neutrality policy in major coal-producing provinces in China
Zhang Silu
Guo Chaoyi
Zhou Ziqiao
Pan Yujie
Ma Xiaotian
Dai Hancheng
Abstract：This study selected five major coal-producing provinces,namely Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Xinjiang,and Guizhou,as the major research targets.With a provincial computable general equilibrium model,we investigated coal decoupling,embodied carbon emission and economic losses under the carbon quota scheme from producer and consumer responsibility perspectives,providing a reference for the low-carbon development pathway.The results show that carbon neutrality policy significantly promotes the decoupling of coal consumption and economic development in various provinces.However,producer responsibility-oriented policy may cause significant economic losses in major coal-producing provinces,especially in Shanxi(58.3％)and Inner Mongolia(65.3％),whereas developed provinces in Southeastern China can achieve the carbon emission reduction goal through provincial trade.In the consumer responsibility-oriented policy scenario,the overall GDP losses are mitigated,and major coal-producing provinces can gradually transit to a low-carbon industrial structure.The results suggested that major coal-producing provinces should promote such transition promptly to avoid being trapped in carbon-and energy-intensive industrial structures.
Keywords：major coal-producing provincesconsumption-based accountingembodied carbon emission transfercomputable general equilibrium analysis
Publication Date：2024-01-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 6-13 )