Analysis and forecast of industrial carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province based on STIRPAT Model
Wu Changjiang
Abstract：Industrial industry is the most important source of carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province.This paper constructs STIRPAT model,uses ridge regression and scenario analysis to predict the peak time and peak value of industrial carbon in Shaanxi Province.The results show that:(1)the peak time of industrial carbon in Shaanxi Province occurs between 2030 and 2040,and the peak scale is about 19 412.54～23 472.48 tons;(2)population size is the most important factor to promote industrial carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province,while energy intensity has a significant inhibitory effect on industrial carbon emissions;(3)population size,regional GDP and industrial output have a significantly positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions,while energy intensity has a significantly negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions.Finally,according to the forecast results of carbon emission,the paper puts forward the path of carbon emission reduction of industrial industries in Shaanxi Province,which also provides some reference for the carbon emission reduction of other industrial provinces and industrial cities.
Keywords：industrial sectorcarbon emissionsSTIRPATcarbon peakcarbon emission reduction path
Publication Date：2023-10-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 19-27 )