Analysis ofindustrial structure ddjustment and carbon emission reduction potential in Xinjiang

Gan Qiaoqiao; Cheng Yan

Abstract：This article is based on the energy consumption carbon emissions data of various industries in Xinjiang in the"2017 Emissions Inventory of 30 Provinces"released by the China Carbon Accoun-ting Database(CEADs),as well as the input-output data of various industries in Xinjiang in the"China Regional Input-output Table".The EIO-LCA model is used to analyze the hidden carbon emissions in the production chain of various industries in Xinjiang,calculate the total carbon emissions caused by final demand,and construct a carbon emission reduction potential model to evaluate the emission reduction potential of various industries in Xinjiang.The research results indicate that:① The direct carbon emissions of various industries in Xinjiang mainly come from high-energy consuming industries,including electric heating production and supply,metal smelting and rolling processing,and chemical industries.② From the perspective of the production chain,the construction industry is the industry with the highest hidden carbon emissions,accountting for 35.92％.Further decomposition of the sources of hidden carbon emissions in the construction industry revealed that the emissions from the electric heating production and supply industry,non-metallic mineral products industry,and metal smelting and rolling industry in the production chain contributed the most to the hidden emissions in the construction industry.③ From the perspective of consumer demand,the implicit carbon emissions from domestic and foreign outflow demand account for the largest proportion,reaching 52.9％,confirming that Xinjiang is in a position of net carbon emissions inflow within the province.④ The industries with the greatest emission reduction potential in Xinjiang are oil and gas extraction,wood processing and furniture manufacturing,non-metallic mineral products,chemical industry,electric heating production and supply industry,which belong to the first emission reduction potential.Based on the research results,policy recommendations are proposed to reduce fossil energy consumption dominated by coal,improve industrial electrification level,strengthen inter provincial carbon reduction cooperation,and focus on industries with high carbon reduction potential,in order to assist in the transformation and upgrading of Xinjiang's industrial structure and the early achievement of the"dual carbon"goal.