Empiricalstudy on the relationship between coal price fluctuation and thermal power generation
Jia Gujiang
Liu Lingyun
Abstract：There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between thermal power generation and coal price,which has a significant linkage change feature.Based on the theory of state space model,the state space model of thermal power generation and coal price is established,and the functional relationship between them is analyzed from 2004 to 2017 in China.The results show that the two are cause and effect relationship,and the fluctuation of coal price causes the instability of thermal power generation,but the thermal power generation also has a restraining effect on the coal price,which can be predicted based on each other's changes.It is suggested that the government should further promote the reform of coal electricity integration,improve the coal electricity price formation mechanism,strengthen the construction of the coal market system,and promote the establishment of the coal price prediction and early warning system based on the planned thermal power generation.
Keywords：state space modelcoal pricethermal power generationnew energy generation
Publication Date：2023-08-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：10( 13-22 )