Analysis of Xinjiang coal industry potential release and its integration into China's unified national market trend

HE Bin

doi:10.11799/ce202512001

Abstract：Since the 14th Five-Year Plan period,domestic energy and electricity demand has surged,leading to a tightening coal supply-demand situation and an accelerated westward shift in production and development arrangement.Leveraging its low development intensity and abundant resources,Xinjiang has emerged as a critical successor region for China's coal supply.Focusing on the Xinjiang coal industry,this study systematically reviews its resource endowment characteristics,production and development status,and the pattern of coal transport out of Xinjiang,and forecasts the industry development trends.The results indicate that Xinjiang possesses concentrated coal resources,with predicted resources within 2000 m depth accounting for 40％of the national total,featuring advantages such as shallow burial and easy extraction.The four major coal bases exhibit a distribution pattern of"abundance in the north and scarcity in the south".During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,Xinjiang's advanced coal production capacity was rapidly released,with output reaching 540 million tonnes in 2024,increasing its share of national production to 11.3％.Outbound transport volume grew to 140 million tonnes,forming a transport corridor pattern primarily reliant on railway networks with coordinated"North-Central-South"routes.In the future,Xinjiang's coal production capacity and output will continue to grow.By the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period,railway outbound transport capacity is expected to exceed 250 million tonnes per year.Coupled with increasing demand in its primary target markets,Xinjiang's pivotal role in securing national coal supply will become more pronounced,with a clear trend toward deeper integration into Chinas unified national market.