Analysis and Prospect of Domestic Rice Market Situation in 2025

JIAO Shanwei

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003-4749.2025.06.002

Abstract：By 2025,under the overall loose supply and demand pattern of rice,the price of domestic rice market showed a trend of rising first and then falling due to the mismatch between stage supply and demand.Among them,there were differences in performance among varieties,and the japonica rice market was relatively strong.With the continuous harvest of new rice,the adverse weather in some producing areas had little effect on the overall yield.Under the situation of stable planting area and overall increase in yield per unit area,it is expected that the total rice yield in 2025 will be higher than that in 2024.In addition,the supply pressure had increased,and the price of new rice had been weak.The state had successively initiated the implementation plan for the minimum purchase price of rice in some major production provinces,which had promoted the market purchase and sale and stabilized the market prices.In the later period,with the large-scale listing of autumn grain,it is expected that the domestic rice market will operate stably overall,and the feature of policy-driven market conditions will be more prominent.