Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Potential Suitable Habitats for Cercidiphyllum japonicum under Climate Change
WEI Weiqiang
GUO Qi
DUAN Xiangguang
Abstract：As a tertiary relict plant species,Cercidiphyllum japonicum holds significant ecological and scientific value,yet faces conservation urgency due to its endangered status and challenges in natural regeneration.The MaxEnt model was employed to predict the future potential distribution patterns of Cercidiphyllum japonicum using 75 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables,while analyzing climate change impacts on its habitat in this study.The results show that the MaxEnt model demonstrate excellent predictive accuracy(AUC=0.986),with precipitation of the warmest quarter(Bio 18),temperature seasonality(Bio4),and precipitation seasonality(Bio15)identified as dominant factors influencing distribution.Current suitable habitats are concentrated in central-southern China(22.0°～34.3° N,98.3°～121.6° E),covering approximately 3.12×106 km2,with highly suitable areas accounting for 33.65％.Under future climate scenarios(RCP2.6 and RCP8.5),suitable habitats will experience continued contraction(up to 10.58％reduction),distribution centroid shift southeastward,and notable contraction of highly suitable areas.The study provides scientific support for habitat conservation and climate change adaptive management of Cercidiphyllum japonicum,suggesting that priority should be given to enhancing conservation efforts in newly identified potential suitable regions along the southeastern coast while optimizing management strategies for existing protected areas.
Keywords：climate changepotential distributionMaxEnt modelconservation strategyCercidiphyllum japonicum
Publication Date：2025-08-25
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-16(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 88-96 )