Research on coal safety assessment and countermeasures in China from the whole chain perspective

HE JiYuan; WANG Bing; SUN Qian; WEN Jiaqi

doi:10.26940/j.cnki.10-1912/TD.2529

Abstract：In the critical period of the"dual-carbon"goals and energy structure transformation,China's coal-dominated energy structure is difficult to fundamentally change in the short term.Coal,as the"ballast stone"of energy security,has a prominent position,but it also faces the dual challenges of ensuring supply and reducing carbon.To coordinate coal sup-ply guarantee and carbon reduction,address the issues of insufficient attention to coal in existing energy security research and the lack of a whole-chain perspective,clarify China's coal supply-demand and security status,and provide a basis for optimizing coal development and utilization and ensuring energy security,the following methods are adopted.It uses San-key diagrams to draw China's coal flow chart for 2022,conducting a visual analysis of coal supply and demand;con-structs a whole-chain coal security system(including 19 indicators)from six links:resources,mining,production,trans-portation,consumption,and ecology,and applies SWOT analysis to dissect the coal security situation,with the supply chain links as the internal environment and consumption and ecology as the external environment.The results show that in 2022,both coal production and consumption in China increased,with strong supply autonomy,but consumption was con-centrated in fields such as thermal power generation and coking,and the problem of loss in washing was prominent.The whole-chain security presents a complex situation:in terms of resources,there are abundant reserves but a low reserve-production ratio(35 years)and unbalanced distribution;in mining safety,after initial improvements,accident indicators have rebounded in recent years;production centralization improves efficiency but exacerbates transportation pressure;transportation has formed a diversified pattern but still faces the challenge of supply-demand mismatch;consumption de-mand grows at a high level with low foreign dependence;ecologically,carbon emissions account for a high proportion,ac-counting for about 55%of fossil energy carbon emissions.SWOT analysis shows that internal strengths include sufficient reserves and output,and strong transportation capacity;weaknesses are low reserve-production ratio and rebound in safety accidents;external opportunities are low foreign dependence and good ecological indicators;threats are high consumption proportion and great pressure from carbon emissions.Coal flow analysis and safety evaluation are integrated from a whole-chain perspective,and the proposed policy recommendations such as resource guarantee,safety management,and trans-portation optimization can provide scientific references for improving coal supply security and promoting green transform-ation of the industry.