Construction of a joint prediction model and diagnostic value of indicators of limited ability to perform ac-tivities of daily living in elderly patients with heart disease

NI Zhihong

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2096-9058.2023.06.007

Abstract：Objective To construct a risk prediction model for limited ability to perform activities of daily living(ADL)in a cohort of elderly cardiac patients in China.Methods A total of 2 081 elderly heart disease patients from the 2018 research data in the China Learning Health Influences Tracking Survey of the Elderly(CLHLS)data were used as the study subjects.The patients were divided into the intact and restricted groups of ADL,and the data of the two groups were analyzed by one-way analysis and logistic regression analysis to assess the influencing factors of restricted ADL and to con-struct a model.SPSS was used to draw the receiver operation characteristic(ROC)curve of the subjects,and the diagnos-tic point of the model for the restricted activities of daily living was predicted by the analysis of the area under the curve.Results The prevalence of ADL limitation in 2 081 elderly cardiac patients was 24.99%.logistic regression analysis showed that marital status,education level,household registration,whether they exercised regularly,sleep quality,vi-sion,hearing,whether they had annual routine physical examination,central obesity,and whether they had bronchitis were the influencing factors of ADL limitation in elderly cardiac patients(all P<0.05).The ROC curve of the integrated predictive model was plotted with the predictive probabilities of new variables output when modeling these 10 variables,with an area under the ROC curve(95%CI)of 0.817(0.792 to 0.843).Conclusion The regression analysis model has some predictive value for the risk of ADL restriction in the elderly cardiac population,which can provide a new target of intervention for the prevention of ADL restriction as well as the management of highly co-morbid diseases in the elderly cardiac population in China.