Research on the cyclical fluctuation and countermeasure suggestions of meat duck market prices in China
Bao Xumei
Liu Lingzhi
Abstract：To investigate the price fluctuation patterns of China's meat duck market and scientifically analyze the seasonal and cyclical characteristics of price volatility,this study selected monthly market price data of meat ducks from January 2012 to December 2024.Descriptive analysis was conducted to explore price fluctuation trends,while seasonal decomposition and Hodrick-Prescott(H-P)filter methods were employed to empirically examine cyclical price dynamics.The results indicate that meat duck prices exhibit significant seasonal fluctuations,with potential peak sales seasons in summer and autumn driving higher prices.Additionally,the market demonstrates pronounced cyclical volatility,where external shocks can prolong cyclical fluctuations.Based on these findings,the study proposes the following recommendations:Strengthening supply-demand balance management by regulating breeding scales and monitoring substitute markets;Establishing a price early-warning mechanism through industry database development,enhanced information transparency,and emergency risk mitigation;Promoting enterprise collaboration to build stable supply chains and coordinated pricing strategies;and optimizing production planning by aligning output schedules with market demand through structural adjustments.
Keywords：Meat duckCyclical price fluctuationSeasonal decomposition methodH-P filtering method
Publication Date：2025-04-15
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 64-68 )