Construction and predictive value of risk prediction model for the oral mucosal membrane pressure injury in elderly patients with severe traumatic brain injury in ICU
QIAN Cheng
BAO Ying
LI Xia
Abstract：Objective To construct a risk prediction model for the oral mucosal membrane pressure injury(MMPI)in elderly patients with severe traumatic brain injury(TBI)admitted to the intensive care unit(ICU),and to evaluate its predictive value.Methods A total of 100 elderly patients who developed oral MMPI while admitted to the ICU for severe TBI from January 2019 to February 2024 were selected as the observation group,and another 100 elderly patients who were admitted to the ICU for severe TBI during the same period but did not develop oral MMPI were selected as the control group.Baseline data for both groups were collected to analyze the influencing factors of oral MMPI in elderly ICU patients with severe TBI,the risk prediction model was constructed,and its predictive value was evaluated.Results Compared with the control group,the observation group had older age,the longer ICU stay and endotracheal tube indwelling time,higher proportions of the modified Beck oral assessment scale(BOAS)score of 11-15,combined diseases,the types of medical devices used ≥ 3,prone position ventilation,elevated skin temperature,sputum suction frequency interval＜2 h,use of vasoactive drugs,poor nutritional state,use of sedative drugs and higher levels of TNF-α and IL-6(P＜0.05,P＜0.01).Lasso-logistic regression analysis showed that the influencing factors of oral MMPI in elderly patients with severe TBI in ICU were age,length of ICU stay,combined diabetes mellitus,prone position ventilation,tracheal tube indwelling time,types of medical devices used,modified BOAS score,sputum suction frequency,use of vasoactive drugs and sedatives,nutritional status,TNF-α and IL-6.The concordance index(C-index)of the risk prediction model based on the above influencing factors was 0.894,and the area under the curve(AUC)was 0.815.The decision curve analysis(DCA)showed that the model achieved a favorable net benefit value.Conclusion Age,length of ICU stay,diabetes mellitus,prone position ventilation,endotracheal tube indwelling time,types of medical devices used,modified BOAS score,sputum suction frequency,use of vasoactive drugs and sedatives,nutritional status,TNF-α and IL-6 are the influencing factors of oral MMPI in elderly patients with severe TBI in ICU.The risk prediction model based on this has high prediction efficiency,and clinical prevention and treatment measures can be formulated according to the above influencing factors.
Keywords：intensive care unitelderlyoralmucosal membrane pressure injuryinfluencing factorrisk prediction model
Publication Date：2026-01-28
Online Publishing Date：2026-02-05(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 76-84 )