Influencing factors of intrinsic capacity and prediction model efficacy in elderly patients with cerebrovascular disease

YAO Rui; ZHANG Min; WANG Xin; XU Yinghua; GUO Chengliang

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-3429.2026.02.011

Abstract：Objective To analyze the status and influencing factors of intrinsic capacity in elderly patients with cerebrovascular disease,and to evaluate the efficacy of prediction model.Methods A total of 206 elderly patients with cerebrovascular disease admitted to the hospital from January to December 2024 were selected.The intrinsic capacity assessment method developed by the World Health Organization was used to investigate the status of intrinsic capacity.Patients with an intrinsic capacity scores ≥ 4 were included in the good intrinsic capacity group and those with an intrinsic capacity scores＜4 were included in the poor intrinsic capacity group.Meanwhile,general information and data such as grip strength,self-efficacy for rehabilitation,activity of daily living and hematological indexes of the two groups were collected.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze factors influencing intrinsic capacity in elderly patients with cerebrovascular disease,and a prediction model was constructed.Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used for goodness-of-fit test of the model,and predictive efficacy of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC).Results The overall intrinsic capacity score of the 206 patients with cerebrovascular disease enrolled in the study was(3.29±0.74)points.Among them,143(69.42％)patients with intrinsic capacity scores＜4 points and the remaining 63 patients were included in the poor intrinsic capacity group and the good intrinsic capacity group,respectively.There were significant differences in education level,marital status,grip strength,the Self-Efficacy for Rehabilitation Outcome Scale(SER)score,Barthel index(BI)score,and C-reactive protein(CRP)between the two groups(P＜0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that education level,marital status,grip strength,SER score,BI score,and CRP were factors influencing intrinsic capacity decline in elderly patients with cerebrovascular disease(P＜0.05).Based on the above influencing factors,the model constructed for predicting intrinsic capacity in elderly patients with cerebrovascular disease achieved an area under the curve of 0.981(0.952,0.995),with a sensitivity of 92.31％and a specificity of 95.24％.Conclusion The intrinsic capacity of elderly patients with cerebrovascular disease is generally low.Educational level,marital status,grip strength,self-efficacy for rehabilitation,activity of daily living,and CRP level are factors influencing their intrinsic capacity.The risk prediction model constructed based on above influencing factors demonstrates certain predictive value for intrinsic capacity decline in patients.