Establishment of a Nomogram Prediction Model for Obstructive Sleep Apnea Hypopnea Syndrome Based on Carotid Ultrasound Parameters

CHEN Ping; WANG Hui; XIAO Haiyan; ZHANG Hao; WANG Zhipei

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-3429.2025.12.008

Abstract：Objective To investigate a Nomogram prediction model for obstructive sleep apnea hypopnea syn-drome(OSAHS)based on carotid ultrasound parameters.Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted on 195 patients with suspected OSAHS admitted from May 2023 to May 2024.According to the diagnosis results,they were divided into OSAHS group(n=120)and simple snoring group(n=75).The general data and carotid ultrasound parameters of the two groups at admission were compared.Lasas-logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of OSAHS,and a Nomogram prediction model for OSAHS was established according to the influencing factors.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and decision curve analysis(DCA)were used to evaluate the application value of the model.Results Compared with the simple snoring group,the OSAHS group had a significantly higher proportion of males,body mass index(BMI),neck circumference,waist circumference,hip circumference,smoking history,diabetes,high-salt diet,vitamin D deficiency,Epvoth sleepiness scale(ESS)score and STOP-Bang questionnaire score(P<0.05).Compared with the simple snoring group,the OSAHS group had significantly higher carotid intima-media thickness(CIMT),stiffness co-efficient β and pulse wave velocity(PWV)and significantly lower vascular ectasias(VE)and compliance coefficient(CC)at admission(P<0.05).Lasso-logistic regression analysis showed that gender,neck circumference,smoking history,vitamin D deficiency,STOP-Bang questionnaire score,CIMT,β and PWV were independent risk factors for OSAHS,and VE and CC were independent protective factors(P<0.05,P<0.01).The area under the curve of the Nomogram prediction model for OSAHS based on the above related influencing factors was 0.941(95%CI:0.908,0.974),and DCA showed that the model had good clinical utility.Risk stratification showed that the higher the risk level,the greater the risk of recurrence(P<0.01).Conclusion The independent risk factors of OSAHS are gender,neck circumference,smoking history,vitamin D deficien-cy,STOP-Bang questionnaire score,CIMT,β and PWV,and the protective factors are VE and CC.The risk prediction model of OSAHS based on these factors is highly sensitive and can accurately screen out potential high-risk population,facilitating the formulation of clinical prevention and treatment strategies.