Influencing Factors of Postoperative Pancreatitis in Patients with Choledo-cholithiasis after ERCP and Construction of the Nomogram Model
ZHOU Yi
ZHU Hengbo
WANG Haopeng
DING Yaokun
Abstract：Objective To investigate the influencing factors of postoperative pancreatitis in patients with choledocho-lithiasis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP)based on Lasso-logistic regression model,and to pro-vide evidence for the prevention of postoperative pancreatitis after ERCP.Methods From January 2021 to January 2024,80 patients with postoperative pancreatitis after ERCP and 160 patients without postoperative pancreatitis were selected.The gen-eral data and laboratory indexes of the two groups were compared,and the influencing factors of postoperative pancreatitis in patients with choledocholithiasis after ERCP were analyzed by Lasso-logistic regression.The model was constructed and veri-fied by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results Lasso-logistic regression analysis showed that history of acute and chronic pancreatitis,history of SOD,TLR4,difficulty in in-tubation,ERCP time,miR-25-3p,pancreatic duct imaging and miR-181a-5p were the influencing factors of postoperative pan-creatitis after choledocholithiasis ERCP(P＜0.01).The AUC predicted by the nomogram model for postoperative pancreatitis after ERCP was 0.851(95％CI:0.801,0.901),the correction curve was basically consistent with the ideal curve,and the DCA suggested that this model had a good clinical net benefit.Conclusion The influencing factors of postoperative pancreati-tis after choledocholithiasis with ERCP include history of acute and chronic pancreatitis,history of SOD,miR-25-3p,miR-181a-5p,TLR4,difficulty in intubation,ERCP time,and pancreatic duct imaging.Therefore,the construction of a no-mographic model is effective in predicting and guiding clinical diagnosis and treatment.
Keywords：CholedocholithiasisEndoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatographyPancreatitisA nomogramLasso-logistic regression modelAnalysis of influencing factor
Publication Date：2025-03-14
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 59-65 )