Establishment and Validation of Nomogram Prediction Model for Risk of Multidrug-resistant Organism Infection in Inpatients in Department of Der-matology
ZHU Na
ZHU Donglin
XING Lei
SUI Lei
Abstract：Objective To establish and verify the nomogram prediction model by analyzing the factors influencing the risk of multi-drug resistant organism(MDRO)infection in inpatients in Department of Dermatology.Methods A total of 8 950 inpatients in Department of Dermatology of our hospital from January 2018 to June 2022 were selected as the research subjects.The incidence of MDRO infection was statistically analyzed,and the influencing factors of MDRO infection were screened by Lasso-Logistic regression analysis.The nomogram prediction model was constructed and the predictive value of the prediction model for MDRO was verified.Results In all,782 cases of MDRO infection occurred in 8 950 inpatients(8.74%).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age,immune skin disease,invasive procedures,diabetes,length of hospital stay,long-term use of glucocorticoids/immunosuppressants,antibiotic combination,C reactive protein(CRP)were independent risk factors for MDRO infection in dermatological inpatients(P＜0.01).According to this equa-tion,the nomogram prediction model of MDRO infection in inpatients in department of dermatology was established by R soft-ware rms program.The predictive risk index of the model was 0.920,and the calibration degree was 0.885.By receiver oper-ating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis,an area under the curve(AUC)of the model in prediction of MDRO was0.945(95%CI:0.903,0.991),with a sensitivity of 0.905,and a specificity of 0.918.Conclusion The risk of MDRO infection in inpatients in department of dermatology is higher,and the influencing factors include age,immune skin disease,invasive procedures,diabetes,length of hospital stay,long-term use of glucocorticoids/immunosuppressants,antibiotic combination,and CRP.The nomogram prediction model based on the above factors has high predictive performance.
Keywords：Hospital infectionMulti-drug resistant organismDepartment of dermatologyHospitalizationInfluen-cing factor analysisNomogram prediction modelAgeLength of hospital stay
Publication Date：2024-02-22
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 44-50 )