Influencing Factors Analysis of Prognosis in Elderly Patients with Severe Pneumonia

MA Li-ping; LIU Yan; WANG Cong; ZHAO Bin

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-3429.2017.11.020

Abstract：Objective To investigate influencing factors of prognosis in elderly patients with severe pneumonia. Methods A total of 125 elderly patients with severe pneumonia admitted during October 2015 and March 2017 were recruited in this study, who had met inclusion and exclusion standard. The patients were divided into survival group (n=34)and death group (n=91) according to whether or not surviving on the 28th d after admission. Clinical data was compared, and Logistic regression analysis was used to identify influencing factors of prognosis in elderly patients with severe pneumonia in two groups. Results There were statistical differences in age, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II ( APACHE II) score, pneumonia severe indexes (PSI) score, procalcitonin (PCT), serum creatinine, MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase, blood calcium and brain natriuretic peptide between the two groups ( P <0. 05 ) . Multifactor Logistic regression analysis showed that age larger than 75 years old, APACHE II score more than 20 points, PSI score more than 150 points, serum cre-atinine larger than 177 μmol/L and blood calcium less than 2. 11 mmol/L were influencing factors of prognosis in elderly pa-tients with severe pneumonia ( P <0. 05 ) . Conclusion Age larger than 75 years old, APACHE II score more than 20 points, PSI score more than 150 points, serum creatinine larger than 177 μmol/L and blood calcium concentration less than 2. 11 mmol/L can increase the risk of death, and these can be used as indexes in evaluation of prognosis of elderly patients with severe pneumonia.