Dynamic system modeling and belief reliability analysis of infectious disease transmission under uncertainty
LIU Xue
LIU Liying
Abstract：In response to the uncertain characteristics in the process of infectious disease transmission,this paper constructs a class of single-population infectious disease dynamic models with uncertain transmission perturbations based on the classical infectious disease dynamic framework.The model regards infectious disease transmission as a dynamic system affected by uncertain factors,where the infection rate is influ-enced by factors such as population mobility,prevention and control measures,and environmental chan-ges.Uncertain perturbation factors can truly reflect the dynamic behavior during the transmission process.Based on this model,the paper further solves the first hitting time distribution,belief reliability function,and belief reliability life of the dynamic system model,revealing the risk evolution mechanism of infectious disease transmission dynamics under uncertain perturbations.On this basis,the paper conducts a sensitivi-ty analysis on the key parameters in the credibility reliability function and credibility reliability life.By plotting the curves of the impact of parameter changes on system reliability,the dynamic relationships be-tween each parameter and the system reliability indicators are intuitively revealed.
Keywords：uncertainty theoryuncertain differential equationfirst hitting timebelief reliability lifetime
Publication Date：2026-08-25
Online Publishing Date：2026-08-28(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：10( 498-507 )