Dynamic risk assessment of industrial cyber-physical systems with the simulation of the physical state by stochastic hybrid system state
LIU Peng
SUN Zi-wen
Abstract：As the core element of Industry 4.0,industrial cyber-physical systems(ICPS)are widely used in basic fields such as water distribution,medical care,and power grids.Meanwhile,cyber attacks against ICPS are also increasing.In order to evaluate the risk posed by cyber attacks to ICPS,this paper has proposed a cyber-to-physical domain dynamic risk evalutaion model.The proposed model focuses on the uncertain evolvement of the physical state under cyber attacks.Firstly,the proposed model uses extended Bayesian attack graphs to calculate physical facilities' distruction probabilities due to cyber attacks.Then,based on the probability of attack success and the sensor measurement innovation,stochastic hybrid system is used to simulate the evolution of the physical state of the system.Finally,the proposed model uses grey relation analysis to realize the transformation of physical state change to system risk value,and achieve the dynamic assessment of system risk.Simulation results using intelligent water distribution system as the simulation object verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.
Keywords：industrial cyber-physical systemscyber-to-physical dynamic riskextended Bayesian attack graphs-tochastic hybrid systemgrey relation analysis
Publication Date：2025-09-30
Online Publishing Date：2025-10-28(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 1766-1774 )