The model of multi-scale alternate positive negative feedbackics and its applications
LIN Yi
YAN Hong-sen
Abstract：Combining with the material systems whose state changes from stabilization to revulsion and then re-stabilization to re-revulsion due to quantitative and qualitative changes, the mathematical model of multi-scale alternate positive negative feedbackics is proposed based on ideas of the alternate positive negative feedbackics. The equivalent positive and negative feedbacks are introduced into the model and are discriminated by the state change speed as the first scale and its acceleration as the second scale. The states stability are divided according to the change intensity of the state and the trend of changes, and the above mentioned variation is expressed in the form of dynamic equations. The model establishing method is simple and easy to implement, and it is a general model based on observation data without needing the internal mechanism of the system or priori knowledge. The model is applied in time series forecast, and based on the air quality index of AQI data and the index of PM2.5 which is the main atmospheric pollutants, the model is established and used to forecast respectively. The results show that the model can reflect the variation of the system accurately and be effectively applied to forecast and has high precision. The model provides a novel and effective means for modeling and forecasting of the complex system whose state changes conform to the above law.
Keywords：multi-scale alternate positive negative feedbackicsmulti-dimensional Taylor networktime seriesmodel buildingsforecasting
Publication Date：2016-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：10( 879-888 )